iPhone: bang or bust?

ref_iphone_home.jpgSeth Godin has a challenge.

Make your predictions on whether the iPhone will be a bang or a bust. I think it will be a bang. A hit. A success. Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer thinks it will be a bust because most business folks use Microsoft products. He’s either being short-sighted or just trying to be part of the conversation . . . Afterall, look at what happened to the Zune.

My take:
- Apple doesn’t build business devices. Apple builds people/lifestyle devices, and business people end up using them.
- Apple already has major relationships with music and video content providers, and phones aren’t just phones anymore.
- The Treo 700w sucks. Bad. I’m on phone number four since January, and Windows on a phone is buggy like Windows on a computer. Is it really much different on varying models?
- Most newsrooms I’ve been in are stocked with Mac users. Journalists love Macs. You really think Apple’s PR is just “that good?” Not a chance. The iPhone has a ton of media love on the way.
- Verizon just passed at&t (Cingular) in subscribers, and old Ma Bell is the sole iPhone service provider for now. Game on. My prediction is they’ll dump millions into pushing the iPhone because it’s a major differenitiator.

There’s a few thoughts. What’s your take?

5 comments ↓

#1 Chris on 04.30.07 at 8:03 am

Even though I am not a huge apple fan my prediction is that Apple fanboys the world over will buy these at $500 - $600 a pop then be disappointed with it but tell the world that its awesome so they don’t look stupid.

#2 Todd on 04.30.07 at 8:46 am

@Chris - why do you think they’ll be disappointed? Love to know a bit about why you think that. -TmH

#3 Hire A Helper on 04.30.07 at 1:49 pm

iPhone? i(don’t)Care….

It’s great to make predictions about things… but it seems everyone and their mom is talking about the iPhone. I’m sure it will be a great product, but is it worth spending the time to analyze and critique?
But since everyone (Seth, Za…

#4 Anshoom Jain on 06.30.07 at 5:17 am

iPhone may be a successful device but success will largely be depended upon the carriers ability to open up features that they haven’t opened up yet. From device perspective there are plenty of phones already available with similar function which don’t have to carry the burden of 700 MB of OS that is required for iPhone.

This comment is not about success of iPhone but more about iPod. iPod retained its market leadership primarily because of patented Hardware elements of it such as touch scroll wheel etc. All the other competitors had to come with alternate designs but they had similar functionality. The iPod now has been transformed from Hardware based to Software based solution and the design elements are no longer relevant. Its all about User Interface and its matter of time (less than 3 months) before touch screens become mainstream. So basically, now iPod has lost its edge and is open for some serious competition.

Apple may benefit from iPhone but has bigger piece of pie to loose from captive iPod.

#5 Thomas on 07.06.07 at 3:14 am

Apple tried to turn an iPod into a phone but fails miserably.

I think the battery issue with the iPhone be its archilles heel.

I mean among other things, you wont want to mail your iPhone to Apple to have a new battery together with all your friends phone numbers, your movies your private photos etc. Let alone the added strain on the postal system.

No doubt soldering in a battery would simplify manufacturing and lower productions costs. But at the expense of user friendliness ( sort of very unlike Apple ? ) Also the iPhone is certainly not a budget phone either.

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